Bears, what will it take to convince you that the bottom is in?

It goes without saying that the last 9 months have been scary and painful for most if not all of us. We lost a lot of money. The macro-economic circumstances are terrible (e.g., large wars, pandemic, inflation) and a lot of crypto projects shit the bed (e.g., 3AC, Luna). This all gave us an insane capitulation moment, where BTC was down 74%, ETH 82%, and the whole crypto market about 75%. We lost more than 2.2 trillion USD of market cap after reaching a top at around 3 trillion..

Since then, however, BTC has rallied about 40% off of the lows and the stock market looks like it is recovering. Moreover, almost every bottom indicator has flashed. An incomplete summary:

The Weekly and Monthly RSI were at historic lows. MACD also. We were below the weekly 200MA for the longest period of time – and reclaimed it with successful weekly closes above it. The MVRV-Z Score hit the green level where bitcoin always bottomed (except in 2012, it went a little lower). The Pi cycle indicator flashed the bottom, which has been insanely accurate. The Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart is at “Basically a Fire Sale” level. The Puell Multiple hit the green level and left it already, which is where bitcoin always bottomed. The Fear & Greed index spent its longest period at extreme fear levels on record.

I honestly do not know of a bottom indicator that has not yet flashed green, although I am sure they are out there. I noticed, however, that there are a lot of doubters – a lot of people calling for lower prices. Most of these bears are sidelined and have not bought the dip much if at all. They expect the common 85% drawdown that occurs during the bear, or even more. They say that these times are special because crypto has not experienced a true recession yet.

So, bears, what would it take to convince you that the bottom is in?