I analyzed buying bitcoin on Mondays and selling on Fridays over the last two years
2 min read
Reading through this subreddit I often stumble on the term ‘red Monday’ and ‘dildo Sunday’… It seems that there is a prevelant opinion that during weekdays the crypto market is pumping while dumping on weekends. The current mantra is buy when it’s low and sell before it dumps, right?
Strategy:
Therefore I simulated the following trading strategy: Buying 100$ into bitcoin on Mondays and selling it on Fridays from 2020-08-24 onwards over two years.
Analysis:
I created a txt file with 100$ entry and the outcome for each week, then loaded it into a free Analyzing Tool from Quant Integral. This is the outcome over the last two years:
Absolute Profits after 102 trades: 70$ Win Rate after 102 trades: 53% Expected Profit per Trade: 0.7%
Conclusion:
On the first glance 70$ Profit seems to be good. If you look at the charts how the expected Profits changes over time, then the strategy was actually viable during a period between week 10 and week 30. But if you look further it began to decline – the strategy stopped working (roughly after 2021-03-08). The win rate nears 50% and the expected profits for a trade went to nearly 0 after 100 trades – those metrics are similar to a coin-flip game. This means that this strategy is not viable anymore and not viable for long term trading.
Remarks:
All data and the analysis can be verified on quantintegral.com where you can analyze any strategies.
Extra:
If there is interest I’ll analyze the strategy if one would buy btc and sell it on the next day over the last two years
submitted by /u/Abranx
[link] [comments]
