[SERIOUS] Benjamin Cowen was not right about BTC dominance and I’m tired of watching his videos to debunk him for you people
4 min read
So yesterday before going to sleep and decided to check the sub to see what was going on and saw myself facing the following post:
My first thought was I can’t believe I have to do this sht again*. I say again because I wrote some posts (here and here) showing how all of his predictions for BTC’s ATH (when and how much) were wrong. All of them.
The OP of that post said that Cowen correctly predicted the dominance would be higher at EOY. I’m here showing he was wrong about that, since the value was 47% in June and 42% is less than 47% (yeah, I maths!).
Now let’s jump back into the cryptoverse lmaoo and see what he has said about BTC’s dominance!
In June this year, when the dominance was 47.58%, he said he believed it would be 50% or more by the end of that month
In a video posted on the 9th of June (watch?v=7oKGQyPFfiQ) his exact words were: “I think we’re easily gonna go above 50% in June”. He said this around 5:15s of the video. As you can see in the chart below, two days after he said that the dominance started tanking for good:
He kept saying he believed dominance would go up through his videos, even though it was clearly going down
On a new video 10 days later (watch?v=jHFc0dQakGs), dominance was already 43.89% and kept saying he believed it was going higher. On his exact words, “Bitcoin dominance will continue going higher”, said around 9:26s. If it was 47%+ 10 days before, it was not “continuing going higher” and this is just non-sense.
He reportedly excludes stablecoins from the debate
In a video (watch?v=zA30CseQFGw) posted on 17 Nov 22, he said that during “this bear market, it has gone up very, very slowly”, and dead-ass posted this chart:
He claims that because of the higher lows, the dominance was higher [sic]. BTC was at 40.62% when he posted the video. In addition, he excludes stablecoins from this debate. It is unfair and a clear manipulation. If stablecoins are also crypto, they must be taken into account when calculating dominance.
In addition, Cowen uses manipulation techniques to avoid being burned
“I might be wrong, though” and “It’s just dubious speculation” are the sentences he says in almost every of his videos. This is a textbook manipulation technique when forecasting whatever, from crypto prices to if it will rain tomorrow. You make a claim that’s taken out of nowhere nor is it well-based on anything and after spending minutes talking about it, you just throw a “I might be wrong” at the end of the presentation.
If it’s just dubious speculation, why bother in (repeatedly) making them?
He then is wrong and wrong again, but people forbid him because he said such statements. Smfh.
In addition yet, Cowen doesn’t use/apply real data science
He literally draws angles and lines and claim he is using data science. Any serious professional on the field knows he’s full of it. This is yet another manipulation technique where one sandwiches their arguments between science topics to make it more believable. The closest thing on his videos to real DS are log regression curves he posts, which is nothing new and even a regular Joe like me can do.
He dresses the veil of academia and such to make him more credible.
Not surprisingly, he has a huge fanbase
I know this post will get downvoted to oblivion, because his fans here are quite keen on defending him here on the sub. It happens so as he’s good at selling his image as someone unbiased and down-to-earth, using science (which he does not) to do his analysis.
At the end of the day, he just wants to sell his premium list
That’s about it. He uses charts and lines and make bold claims to lure people into believing he is humble and the best influencer out there because “he is not biased” [sic]. He’s biased towards selling you his premium list and apparently has become very good at it.
TL;DR
OP in the other post said he correctly predicted BTC dominance to be higher by EOY. With 47-ish% at the beginning of June, dominance fell throughout the year, proving the other OP’s and Cowen’s claims wrong.
Trust no influencer.
submitted by /u/reddito321
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