With one year left to the next halving, Bitcoin is following about the same pattern as all the previous times. We are right now in the “mini bull run“ phase.

With exactly 354 days left until April 6th, where the Bitcoin Halving is estimated to happen we can finally begin to get excited about the next most important event in Crypto. I think we all here by now know exactly what a Bitcoin Halving consists of but for all the new ones here:

A Bitcoin halving is the event where the rewards for each mined block decrease, causing the Supply to enter the market at a slower rate, thus increasing the scarcity of Bitcoin. This time the block rewards will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, just after each halving a big bull market followed as demand increased.

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Chart from Will Clemente

Now here we can look at the price-action of BTC after each Halving until the next one and we can see that the price action is mostly with the same rough structures. Especially the current cycle and the 2018 cycle seem to look very similar.

And just like in the 2018 cycle we are right now in the “smaller bull market“ phase, just as in 2019 we are leaving the bear market lows and entering the territory of our previous bull market (up from $30k).

This could obviously mean that we will likely have this smaller bull market and top out at something like $40k and then go mostly sideways until the next halving, which seems like a very good deal. Not too much of a bull market in the middle of the current unstable macro conditions but also a good recovery off lows.