Is it more likely for Moons to continue to drop below 10c, or bounce back soon? Yes, nobody knows shit about fuck, but let’s look at what happened, the history of moons, and what’s in store for Moons in the upcoming months.
4 min read
Going purely by historic behavior, the probabilities point to a period of limbo before the next major price action.
That’s because anyone who paid attention to Moon price action for the past years would notice that it’s typically driven by three things: short periods of hype, whale action on super low volume, and Bitcoin bull runs with spikes in activity.
The whale action on super low volume is becoming less of a lone driver now, with the big growth in volume.
Here’s what happened and why Moons are going back down:
We had a long period of price action averaging between 7c-11c.
That’s what happens when the sub is in a bear market or a limbo market, and there’s no big news about Moons.
Last month, we had the news of the CDC listing and the change of terms and conditions for RCPs on Reddit, no longer saying Moons can’t be traded.
This caused a brief surge of ecstasy, with the price surging 800%.
It was a bit too much of a surge to last and not correct.
The price is settling back down as the hype of the news is fading.
How low will it go?
I wouldn’t bet on sub 10c just yet.
While the momentum being gone and fear growing back could definitely cause more drop, I wouldn’t be so quick at calling sub 10c prices.
Keep in mind we bottomed around 7c-11c range when things were worse in crypto (crypto banks failing, when SEC fears were fresh, etc), and we didn’t have the new good news about Moons yet.
Also, we got a new sustained ATH on more real volume, and people have seen that prices above at least 50c is a realistic expectation without depending on near non-existent volume.
So the probabilities point to the floor being more likely higher now.
Especially as we move further away from the bottom of the bear market, and we’re now closer to the next Bitcoin halving.
When will it go back up?
I wouldn’t expect it to go straight back up any time soon. Especially if fear starts to build back.
But with Moons, it’s much harder to predict.
Who knows what could happen. We could have a major announcement next week about another exchange listing, we could have a mention on a major news/media outlet, Reddit admins could announce a new feature for Moons, a major player might buy the banner for an extended period, something like Moonplace could pop up, or some celebrity might suddenly Tweet about us.
But until something like that happens, we’re more likely gonna settle down for a while, than have a miraculous bounce back. However, with not the most convincing odds. Because a small market like this just requires a few whales to jump start another round of bull action. They would still need a reason to all decide to buy back.
Even if there’s no news at all, and no jump start, Moons are still likely to pick up momentum when Bitcoin starts its next bull run cycle, as activity and interest on the sub picks up again.
Is it possible that Moons never reach a new ATH?
Yes, it’s possible.
Moons could be rugged, abandoned, the sub could fall apart, etc…
Right now it’s not looking likely. Reddit has invested too much time and resources to get Moons pulled out right now. If they had any doubts, they would have pulled the plug before mainnet.
It looks like Reddit is currently undergoing a web 3.0 bid, and Moons and RCP are very much part of that plan for the time being.
So what’s in store for Moons is more likely more development than more decline. With the change of terms and condition from Reddit, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s not only more listings, but potentially a replacement for the FTX partnership.
What about doing the opposite of what the sub tells you?
That only works on trends that are starting to go on too long.
If you look at the sub’s track record, it’s almost 50/50, because this place is really bipolar, and you can always find the opposite argument posted for every argument posted.
But if you see too much of a trend, too much of a popular narrative, and it goes on too long, that might be a sign to short it or go the opposite way.
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