The countdown really is on right now, as we are just standing under one year apart from the next, and possibly most important, Bitcoin Halving in April 2024. So it is obviously quite interesting to now compare our current situation to the times before the previous Halvings, as this may make us understand the sheer scale of the next Halving. While doing so, we should should not look at just some TA shenanigans or price charts, but something way more important…

That is simple the BTC Supply, each Halving is here to decrease the growth of the BTC Supply and thus make it even more scarce with lower inflation and ever-rising demand, as an effect the price has the adjust upwards.

Specifically one part of the Supple is very interesting here, the BTC Supply to trade. Now you may say that all of the BTC Supple is the same, that is true, but it is also true that up to 70% of the whole Supply is in the hands of long-term holders right now and 50% of the whole Supply is in the hand of the most dedicated long-term holders who did not sell for over 2 years.

Now add to that the Supply that is lost forever in the early days of Crypto and you end up with a very low amount of a leftover, that is the Supply exchanges can snatch up and sell to new people entering Crypto.

2020 vs 2024 Halving

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Chart showing BTC Supply available to trade right now, from MitchellHODL

Here we have the most important comparison now, during the 2020 Halving, the BTC Supply available to trade was actually making complete new ATHs and now we are looking at multi-year lows during our 2024 Halving. So from a Supple perspective, the 2024 Halving will be completely different to the 2020 Halving.

What happens if you barely have any Supple left to trade, but demand rises as a bull run comes up? Well, the only thing that adjusts here is the price. The price goes up as long as the demand and supple are not evened out. This next bull market could get very interesting…