BTC.D will not break above 52%, despite calls in the Cryptoverse otherwise
2 min read
Despite calls in the Cryptoverse that BTC.D will rise to 60%, it is not likely, and here’s why.
Last bear cycle in the summer of 2018 we saw an impulsive move in BTC.D from ~39% to ~62%. In August when dominance topped out at 62%, the weekly RSI was ~71, with the move rejected by the 100 week EMA. We saw a very similar move this bear market during the summer of 2022 where we saw dominance make an impulsive move from ~40% to ~49%. Coincidentally, in late June 2022, when dominance topped out ~49%, the weekly RSI was ALSO ~71, with the move ALSO rejected by the 100 week EMA.
Then, in summer of 2019 we saw the dominance rise from 53% to 71%, where BTC.D was rejected by the 200 week EMA with an overheated weekly RSI of ~73. We just saw a very similar move where dominance rose from ~39% to ~52% and was ALSO rejected by the 200 week EMA with the SAME overheated weekly RSI of ~73.
There is also the SAME bearish divergence in the weekly RSI indicating the top has occurred, just like it did in the summer of 2019 (pre-halving year). Coincidence? I don’t think so. Could we see another double top in BTC.D during a possible 2024-25 bull-run? Maybe, but I think the 200 week EMA will prove to be very difficult to break out of just like it did during the last cycle. Will we reach 60% dominance? Lol.
submitted by /u/aramirez07
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