Just how much Bitcoin is there to go around? A brief look into a finite asset today.

Bitcoin’s total supply will max out at 21 million bitcoin by 2144, when all bitcoin in existence are mined. Every 4 years, the amount of bitcoin supplied every 10 minutes is cut in half (aka the halvening). Currently, the current BTC distributed every 10 mins is 6.25 BTC – in 2024, this will decrease to 3.125. This number is striking compared to 2012, when 50 BTC were distributed every 10 minutes to miners.

The current number of bitcoin in supply today are approximately 19.4 million. (Source: https://www.banklesstimes.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/)

Further, current estimates of the number of bitcoin lost forever (due to failed/faulty transactions, lost wallets), is around 3.7 million. (Source: https://decrypt.co/37171/lost-bitcoin-3-7-million-bitcoin-are-probably-gone-forever)

Given this information, there are approximately 15.7 million BTC in current supply, with a max total supply of approximately 17.3 million BTC. How does these numbers relate to supply and demand with the current population today? Moreover, if there was mass adoption or interest of bitcoin, how much could we realistically own one day? That answer depends on how many people deem it valuable before the price skyrockets due to limited supply, but here are some statistics using available supply today.

Max BTC we could hold if every smartphone user held bitcoin:

15.7 mil BTC / 6.92 billion smartphone users = .002 BTC

Max BTC if every millionaire only wanted to hold bitcoin:

15.7 mil BTC / 56 mil millionaires = 0.28 BTC

This last calculation does not account for how many shrimps (myself) with < 1 BTC are trying to accumulate BTC long-term. There are over 1 million wallets holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC today.

When we look at the numbers another way, how many people can hold 0.1 BTC, 1 BTC if everyone else didn’t own bitcoin?

Of smartphone users: up to 2 in every 100 persons (2%) can hold 0.1 BTC, and 2 in every 1,000 (0.2%) smartphone users can hold 1 BTC. Of millionaires: only 28% can hold 1 bitcoin

These numbers are staggering when you consider the whales who hold much of the BTC supply and the number of shrimps who hold < 1 BTC already. (Number of BTC owned by wallets holding > 100 BTC ~ 12 mil BTC or 62% of total supply, not accounting for BTC lost).

Today, the price of bitcoin is just north of $27,000 USD. If a large portion of the world decides this is a valuable asset to hold (and especially to hedge against inflation when The USD is no longer backed by gold), it could be worth far more given the total supply (there are still people who don’t understand you can’t just “make more bitcoin”).

TLDR: If you hold > 0.002 BTC, I think you’re still pretty damn early.