Normalized Bitcoin Price based on halving periods – 124 days until the next halving

I analyzed years worth of daily Bitcoin price data, and created daily indices (30D smoothed) based on the halving periods. This is a method used in many retail demand planning/ forecasting systems…when applied to a cryptocurrency like bitcoin, we can understand the price over time in relation to the average for the observed period. The goal is to estimate the average, and understand when the price fluctuates in relation to the average. I would love thoughts, comments, and feedback on this approach.

Image of normalized price based on halving periods, as well as average prices for each halving: https://imgur.com/a/CMijX5S

Observations after looking at the updated BTC price data crafted to an index:

Every halving cycle, the variability of price to the average is reduced (Peak of almost 4, almost 2.5, 2.5, 2) Every halving cycle, the starting price of the cycle is less than half of the average price for the halving cycle We’ve seen a peak or high point somewhere between 200 and 700 days since the halving, we see a a dip in the middle of the cycle and then a run up in price again to the end The average price for each halving is increasing exponentially, at a deteriorated rate. If we see deterioration of the exponential growth around 1.5, We’ll see an average price growth for the next halving at 300%, pointing to a $100k average for 2024 – 2028

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