OG Experiment Update: I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (JUNE 2024 Update/Month 78 +12%)
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EXPERIMENT – Tracking 2018 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – Month Seventy-Eight – Up +14%
Find the full blog post with all the tables here.
Welcome to your monthly no-shill data dump: Here’s the 66th monthly report for the OG 2018 Top Ten Experiment featuring BTC, XRP, ETH, BCH, ADA, LTC, NEM, DASH, IOTA, and Stellar.
tl;dr
What’s this all about? I purchased $100 of each of Top 10 Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven’t sold or traded, reporting monthly nearly 6 years. Did the same in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments here. Snapshots taken on the 1st of each month (snapshot below taken 1 DEC) JUNE Highlights: IOTA All red month. ETH overtakes BTC for the overall lead, the only two cryptos in the green since June 2018. Combined Top Ten Portfolios way up vs S&P500. Total Crypto Market Cap +302% since Jan. 2018
Month Seventy-Eight – UP +12%
The 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio is BTC, XRP, ETH, BCH, ADA, LTC, IOTA, NEM, Dash, and Stellar.
June highlights for the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio:
All red month, one of many for the 2018 Portfolio ETH leads, just ahead of second place BTC. Both are far ahead of the others and the only two cryptos in the green since January 2018.
June Ranking and Dropouts
Here’s a look at the movement in the ranks since June 2018:
Top Ten dropouts since January 2018: seventy-eight months into the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, 40% of the cryptos that started in the 2018 Top Ten have remained.
Dash and IOTA have both fallen out of the Top 100 and NEM is now out of the Top 200.
June Winners and Losers
June Winners – No winners this month, although BTC (-7%) fell the least.
June Losers – NEM tanked this month, losing -63% of its value.
Overall Update – ETH back in first place. NEM in the basement. Only 20% in positive territory.
After 6.5 years of holding these cryptos, only 2 out of the 10 are in the green: BTC and ETH.
The battle for first place is tight with ETH (+380%) just ahead of second place BTC (+376%).
The initial $100 invested in first place ETH 6.5 years ago? It’s worth $481 today.
NEM is at the bottom, down -99% since January 2018. The initial $100 invested in NEM seventy-eight months ago is worth $1 today. DASH and IOTA aren’t doing much better.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:
In contrast to the performance of the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio, Crypto as a sector is up +302% since January 2018. There was no easy way to achieve this at the time, but if you were able to capture the entire crypto market since New Year’s Day 2018, you’d be doing much, much better than the Experiment’s Top Ten approach (+12%).
You would also be significantly outperforming the return of the S&P (+105%) over the same period of time, and eight of the individual cryptos within the 2018 Top Ten (except for Ethereum and BTC).
Crypto Market Cap Low Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $114B in January 2019.
Crypto Market Cap High Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $2.65T in October 2021.
Bitcoin dominance:
BitDom ended June at 53.5%. For context, see the chart above and high and low points below:
Low Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 33% in January 2018.
High Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: 70.5% in August 2019.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:
If I decided to cash out the 2018 Top Ten Experiment today, the $1000 initial investment would be worth $1,125, +12% from January 2018.
The all time high for this portfolio is October 2021 (+72%).
The lowest point was in January 2019 when the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio was down -88%.
This serves as a good reminder: no one can predict the value of any crypto tomorrow, let alone next month or next year. The 2018 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio was down -88% after one year, -80% after two years, -25% after three years, and +12% now.
Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios
Alright, that’s that for the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment recap.
But I didn’t stop the Experiment in 2018: I invested another $1000 into each of the 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Tens as well. How are the other Crypto Index Fund Experiments doing?
2018 Top Ten Experiment: up +12% (total value $1,125) 2019 Top Ten Experiment: up +485% (total value $5,851) 2020 Top Ten Experiment: up +757% (total value $8,571) (best performing portfolio) 2021 Top Ten Experiment: up +208% (total value $3,077) 2022 Top Ten Experiment: down -44% (total value $563) (worst performing portfolio) 2023 Top Ten Experiment: up +82% (total value $1,821) 2024 Top Ten Experiment: up +11% (total value $1,115)
So overall? Taking the seven portfolios together:
After a $7,000 total investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $22,123.
That’s up +216% on the combined portfolios, down from November’s all time high of +553%. Here’s the combined monthly ROI since I started tracking the metric in January 2020:
That’s a +216% gain by investing $1k in whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for seven years in a row.
Comparison to S&P 500:
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the Experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options.
The S&P 500 is up +105% since January 2018, so the initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would be worth $2,050 had it been redirected to the S&P.
Taking the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments, the yields are the following:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $2,050 today $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $2,180 today $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,700 today $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,460 today $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2022 = $1,150 today $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2023 = $1,430 today $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2024 = $1,150 today
Taken together, the results for a similar approach with the S&P:
After seven $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 my portfolio would be worth $11,120.
That is up +59% since January 2018 compared to a +216% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
The visual below shows a comparison on ROI between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments:
Conclusion:
Many thanks to the long-time Experiment followers, appreciate you taking the time to follow along over the years. For those just getting into crypto, welcome! I hope these reports can somehow give you a taste of what you may be in for as you begin your crypto adventures. Buckle up, think long term, don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose, and try to enjoy the ride!
A reporting note: I’ll focus on 2024 Top Ten Portfolio reports + one other portfolio on a rotating basis this year, so expect two reports per month. June’s extended report is on the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio (the OG Experiment), which you’re reading now. You can check out the latest 2019 Top Ten, 2020 Top Ten, 2021 Top Ten, 2022 Top Ten, and 2023 Top Ten reports as well.
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