What would happen if the US decided to make a strategic Bitcoin Reserve?

There have been many news reports that someone’s asset manager wants to create a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

What could happen if the US went this route?

The US government currently has $15B of Bitcoin vs $600B for gold reserves. At $15B, not much would happen. It’s such a small amount that no other country would bat an eye. It would be the status quo, and nothing would happen.

But if the US increased their to current $15B of Bitcoin to $600B, several things could happen

Option 1 – Peace and prosperity

Bitcoin price skyrockets due to US government buying. Consumers see US government acceptance as a sign of widespread adoption, and Bitcoin suddenly sees a lot of demand due. Network gets congested and we see $100-200 transactions again like mid-2023 and mid-2021. Except this time it’s permanent. Bitcoin becomes popular, but it can only be used by the wealthy who can afford $100 transaction fees.

A $2T+ network is protected by $30B of mining equipment, and somehow magically escapes being attacked even while the security budget keeps dwindling.

Option 2 – Economic War

Russia or China decides to attack Bitcoin just to mess around with the US, and because it’s the cheapest way to attack the US economically. Russia asks China to borrow a few semiconductor fabrication plants, and after spending the laughably-low amount of only $30B, they can mine Bitcoin indefinitely at a profit. As an additional bonus, they have so many miners that they have cornered a $2+ Trillion Bitcoin market, and they sell their Bitcoin at a profit. They secretly censor US gov transactions and reorg the blockchain whenever there’s a US gov transaction. Other miners (being selfish) are fine with this since they aren’t hurt by Russia’s actions since they’re not the target of the attack.

Option 2a – US loses

If the US doesn’t fight back with its own semiconductor fabrication plants, Russia would corner the market. Mining would become extremely unprofitable except for Russian/Chinese mining pools. Bitcoin becomes centralized since Russia is constantly 51% attacking the network.

Option 2b – US wins

Alternatively, if the US fights back and builds its own mining semiconductor fabrication plants, which would cost $50B and 4 years because the US doesn’t have that many to start. After 4 years of building, there will be a race to see who can acquire more. Bitcoin mining will become an extreme loss for every miner who is not stealing electricity. Reorgs would be common as the US and Russia constantly reorg the chain until one of them gives up. Bitcoin becomes unusable due to constant reorgs until one of them gives up.

Eventually the US wins and controls all of Bitcoin mining. No one wants to use the network

Option 3 – Asset manager is replaced an actual blockchain expert

Blockchain expert recommends that this is a dumb idea because it’s too costly to secure Bitcoin. They either give up on using crypto as a strategic reserve, or use private network.