There is a total of 920 million USDC wagered on Polymarket on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election. The outcome of this bet hinges on the UMA oracle, a token with a total market cap of 179 million USD, less than 20% of the bets at stake.

So, the Polymarket betting market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election has ballooned to almost 1 billion USDC wagered (920,717,846 USDC as of writing)

The outcome in the event of a dispute will be decided by a vote of UMA token holders. The market cap of UMA is currently 179.6 million USD. And with as much money wagered as there is and a topic as contentious as this, it is almost certain that enough people will dispute any proposed outcome to trigger a vote.

Doesn’t this represent an enormous security risk, seeing as someone needs only spend 180 million USD to manipulate a betting market worth nearly 1 billion USD?

Of course, I am aware that any attempt to actually acquire this many UMA tokens to gain control of the oracle would likely result in a sharp increase in the price of UMA, but it remains a concern that at least must be theoretically addressed.

UMA’s website claims “over 1.25 billion USD in value secured”. If that claim is true, this single betting market would represent nearly half of the total “value” secured by UMA, ever.