As goes Bitcoin, so goes the market.”

They say, “As goes Bitcoin, so goes the market.”

The fourth Bitcoin Halving took place on April 20, 2024. Historically, these events have sparked major rallies in the crypto market. However, these rallies don’t start immediately. To predict where the market may go next, let’s take a closer look at the third Bitcoin Halving, which took place on May 11, 2020.

As you read the following analysis, find the relevant dates and prices on the graph. To write this analysis and create this graph, I used price data from Binance accessed via TradingView. All prices are closing prices.

As of November 11, 2019, the third Bitcoin Halving was six months away. The price of BTC was 8,733.27 USD.

On May 11, 2020, the third Bitcoin Halving took place. The price of BTC was 8,561.52 USD. This price was 1.97 percent lower than the price six months earlier.

As of November 11, 2020, the third Bitcoin Halving had taken place six months earlier. The price of BTC was 15,684.24 USD. This price was 83.19 percent higher than the price on the date of the Halving.

As of November 8, 2021, the third Bitcoin Halving had taken place almost eighteen months earlier. The closing price of BTC was 67,525.83 USD. This price was 688.71 percent higher than the price on the date of the Halving. (Note: This date does not appear on the chart.)

As you can see, the third Bitcoin Halving was a catalyst with a delayed reaction. Following the Halving, the price of BTC increased 83.19 percent in six months, but it increased another 605.52 percent in the next twelve months or so.

If history is any guide, then we may not see much price movement for another four or five months. Will the multiple Spot Bitcoin ETFs accelerate this timeframe? I have no idea. However, I do firmly believe that the biggest gains are still ahead of us.

Now it’s your turn!

What do you think of the historical price of BTC, and do you think that this price history can help us predict where the market goes from here? 🤔