I’m beginning to think that bears in this market may have entered their denial phase.
3 min read
Bear behavior is similar to bull behavior right after we crashed from $69K:
Remember when we started to crash down from $69K, after the bull market peaked, and bulls were the ones in denial?
Bulls were saying it was a fake drop and we would bounce back to eventually $100K. It was “obviously manipulation”. The drop was gonna be a bear trap.
Now that the bear market may have bottomed, we are starting to see the exact same thing from bear.
I’m seeing comments and posts about these latest rallies being fake, and probably manipulation. It will eventually crash to $10K. How it doesn’t make sense, and how it’s a bull trap.
It’s been well over a month since we were supposed to be in a bull trap.
We dropped all the way down to $17.6K on June 18, and haven’t found as new low since. And somehow managed to get as high as $24K.
Bears have begun to switch their narratives:
The more telling sign is that bears have started to switch their narrative. The main narrative of bears has been macro economics, and the plunge into a recession.
The initial idea was that, if average Joe is struggling, he won’t be able to buy much crypto. That’s assuming average Joe really is the market mover in crypto.
Inflation was increasing, gas prices went sky high, home prices too, it was tightening the budget of average Joe.
The only flaw remaining in their argument, was that unemployment was still low, in a year when wages increased the most in decades. So most average Joes still had money.
But bears brushed that off and said mass layoffs and rising unemployment were coming.
But now those increased unemployment numbers didn’t come. And unemployment is continuing to drop.
What’s worse is oil prices have plunged from $123 to $89. And the housing market is cooling off. While the supply chain is continuing its recovery.
Energy was the #1 culprit of the increased CPI numbers. In fact, if you removed energy from the last CPI data, it wouldn’t have had any increase.
The whole reason for Fed hikes has been CPI.
Lower CPI means the Fed won’t have to be aggressive with rate hikes.
The switch:
So now I’ve started to see bears switch their narratives that if the economy and all those things are starting to do better, that means we’re unlikely to see Fed printing any money to bailout a struggling market.
So we won’t see any bull market for crypto and will remain in a bear market. Based on the assumption that the stimulus is what caused the crypto bull market (if you check my past post on this, you will see that it’s not entirely true).
Economy going to shit was what they originally said would cause the bear market. But now some bears have started to switch to the economy going well being bearish.
How we bottomed in the last bear market.
The evidence is growing, and the picture is looking increasingly less in favor of bear narratives.
You only have to look at how we bottomed in the last bear market.
While the timeline is shorter (probably because we also had a premature and shorter bull market), the magnitude, and most importantly the ratio is almost the same, with a similar over 40% drop.
We had the same period of stagnation (crabbing), before crashing under the final support. Before crashing into limbo, but with a slowly growing uptrend.
submitted by /u/fan_of_hakiksexydays
[link] [comments]
